ModelsPositioningIn development
A big position,
or just a big wallet?
Trader Conviction will measure a position against the wallet that opened it — its own history, its own usual size — rather than against everyone else's.
One wallet, one position.
Every position that wallet has taken
What it
actually reads.
- Wallet-level positionsThe position as it was opened
- That wallet's historyWhat it usually does, at what size
- Market contextHow large the position is for the market too
Observation classes, not vendors. Which venues sit underneath is documented in the API.See what each source covers
Every reading
carries its context.
- "model":
- "trader_conviction",
- "market":
- "BTC",
- "state":
- "in_development", no reading is served yet
- "planned_output":
- "relative_commitment",
- "observed_at":
- "—", when it was read
- "coverage":
- "—", what it saw
- "limits":
- "Not a skill or identity claim", what it will not claim
Published fields are in the API documentation.
What it will
not tell you.
- 01It is not built yet. Nothing on this page is a reading you can call today.
- 02An unusual position is unusual, not correct. The model will not rate the trader.
- 03A wallet is not a person, and a person can hold several.
About this
model.
When can I use it?
Not yet. It is one of three models still in development, and the API returns nothing for it.
How is this different from tracking large wallets?
A large wallet taking its ordinary position is not news. This measures the position against that wallet's own record, so a mid-size wallet doing something it has never done reads as loudly as a big one doing its usual.
Does it identify traders?
No. It works from on-chain positions and their history. It will not attribute a wallet to a person or an institution, and a reading that did would be a claim we cannot support.
The other
five.
Is this move getting overheated, and exposed to forced closing?
PositioningFlow AbsorptionIs someone buying or selling steadily while the price barely reacts?
PositioningPositioning DivergenceWhich groups of participants are starting to take opposite sides?
RiskIn developmentCascade RiskWhere could forced selling or buying outrun the liquidity available to absorb it?
ExpectationsIn developmentExpectations GapDo options, prediction markets and the underlying price the same scenario?
Not yet.
But not vague.
Three of the six are still being built. The three that are not answer today.