ModelsExpectationsIn development

Three markets,
three answers.

Expectations Gap will compare what options, prediction markets and the underlying price each imply about the same outcome, and show where they stop agreeing.

See a model that runs today Read the documentation

knownat · expectations_gapIllustrative

Three markets, one question.

Options, prediction markets, the underlying

What it
actually reads.

Options marketsExpected range and the skew inside it
Prediction marketsThe probability the crowd is paying for
Underlying priceWhat the instrument itself is doing

Observation classes, not vendors. Which venues sit underneath is documented in the API.See what each source covers

Every reading
carries its context.

planned shapeillustrative

"model":: "expectations_gap",
"market":: "BTC",
"state":: "in_development",
"planned_output":: "pairwise_gaps",
"observed_at":: "—",
"coverage":: "—",
"limits":: "Not a view on which market is right",

Published fields are in the API documentation.

What it will
not tell you.

01It is not built yet. Nothing on this page is a reading you can call today.
02It will report where the three disagree, not which of them to believe.
03Three markets can price the same words and mean different things; the comparison has to be made explicit, not assumed.

About this
model.

When can I use it?

Not yet. It is one of three models still in development, and the API returns nothing for it. It is listed as in development everywhere on this site.

Will it tell me which market is right?

No. A gap between two prices is a fact; which side of it to take is a position, and taking positions for you is not what this is. The model's job is to make the comparison legible, including where the two questions are not quite the same question.

What can I use in the meantime?

The prediction-market and options data behind it are already being recorded, and the coverage figures on the home page count them. What is missing is the model that puts the three side by side.